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As of early April, the size of the mainline jet fleet (Airbus and Boeing aircraft) in service worldwide has fallen to the level of the mid-1990s. Due to the large-scale aircraft grounding, the number of aircraft groundings exceeds the number of active fleets, and the data may lag behind the actual grounding situation.
Data analysis at the beginning of April showed that of the 22,000 Airbus and Boeing aircraft operated by passenger airlines, less than 9,500 were still flying, accounting for about 43%, and this data is expected to continue to decline in the coming weeks. The current size of the global active fleet is about the same as in 1997.
Currently, more than two-thirds of the operating fleets in the three regions are grounded, namely Africa (86%), Middle East (78%) and Europe (75%). Asia Pacific and North American airlines still have slightly higher numbers of mainline passenger flights than grounded aircraft, with active aircraft accounting for 56% of their fleet. The number of European aircraft grounded is the least, only more than 4,200.
After a comprehensive analysis of this situation, the "Air Cargo News" website recently released a global air cargo market operation report, which provides a detailed overview of the cargo performance affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. In recent weeks, most passenger airlines have substantially reduced their operating services and have basically stopped operating baggage services, which account for about 50% of the cargo volume. The air cargo market has now entered a state of growth and the aviation industry is facing a huge capacity contraction.
Consulting firm Seabury calculated that at the end of March this year, the freight capacity was about 35% lower than the same period last year. The number of different trade channels varies greatly. On the busiest route, the capacity from North America to the Asia-Pacific region fell by 17%, while the opposite direction decreased by 19%. Capacity from Asia Pacific to Europe decreased by 30%, while capacity in the opposite direction decreased by 32%. Within Asia, it fell by about 35%. The report also pointed out that due to measures taken to maintain a safe distance, consumers have reduced expenditures, production lines have stopped, and freight demand has also declined. According to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services, freight demand fell by about 23% in March. The reduction in demand led to a reduction in capacity, so freight rates have risen.
Data from the Tac Index shows that from March 2 to April 6, the growth rate of freight services from Hong Kong, China to Europe was 158%. During the same period, the growth rate of Hong Kong, China to North America also reached 90.5%. These early signs indicate that as airlines began to reactivate grounded cargo planes and passenger planes were used as temporary cargo planes, the container business began to play a role and the cargo situation was easing.
Lufthansa Cargo CEO Peter Gerber said that with the resumption of production plants in various countries, the demand for cargo may surge several times in the coming months. This result was also predicted in the latest business performance update of logistics and parcel giant DHL. Although in the past few weeks, Europe and North America are still in the early stages of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, but these areas are likely to experience a recession and subsequent rise, and the peak of the epidemic and the turning point of the curve have not yet arrived.
